Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Swing Trade Number 2

The market appears to have found a direction, and it looks like I'm going to be short the market again should things go my way. I looked at the S&P and the 10 sma is below the 30 and the Williams R is greater than -20.




The VIX also looks primed for a selloff. The RSI is close to 30 and there is about the VIX is about 10% below the SMA.




I found what I think to be a perfect setup in two possible stock CMG and COH.

CMG looks to have rallied with the market the last couple of days, but it's performance against the S&P and primary competition has been terrible. Earnings were on July 23rd, so we are "blue ocean" on that front.

I figure it could see $65 again very quickly on a sell off and my initial stop will be at $74.70. I plan to buy short below 70.79. While it looks like a 1:1 trade, I think it could go lower than $65 due to its long smooth downtrend and 52 week history.



COH looks like it waffled after earnings but made a good move up during the recent stock rally. It's been a dog against the S&P. Earnings were on July 29th, but I think the results should be baked into the stock by now.

The play would be to get in below $25.99 right now, but I think this one is probably a day away from making a swing high. In any event, I can't risk putting my stop 10% away when I think that is the most I could probably profit. The 52 week low is at $23.22, so I'm not sure it could make it below that. CMG on the other hand has been in the $50's in the last 12 months.

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