Thursday, August 7, 2008

Fantasy Football

My primary fantasy football draft is in a couple of weekends, so I’ve begun ranking my players. Our league is basically set up so that the three key positions of QB, RB, and WR will determine how your team will do. I’m going to try to be dominant in two of the three areas and be middle of the pack in the other. We snake the draft order, so it’s nearly impossible to be great in all three unless you get an exceptional value after round 7. My weak position in the past has been WR, so I’ll start the year with a roster overloaded with them hoping to get lucky with one.

Here’s how I’m going to do it this year.

  1. Get rankings of offensive lines and add teams to my “do not draft” list
  2. Get individual rankings from FFBToolbox catered to my leagues point system
  3. Tier the players based on differential of position
  4. Draft based on tiers.

I’ve gotten three ranking lists off the internet with O-line rankings, and averaged them as a starting point. From that, I’ve draw the following conclusions:

A. Teams I do not draft from (along with issues in addition to a terrible O-line.)

  1. Kansas City – Very young and rebuilding (LJ and Bowe are interesting though)
  2. Chicago – No QB, no proven running back, mediocre at WR
  3. Miami – No solid QB and a running back by committee (that’s always injured)
  4. Atlanta – A rookie QB and an untested RB
  5. Tampa Bay – Despite decent offensive line, I just hate Tampa Bay since they are always a mediocre offensive team for fantasy football. It’s bust central.

B. Teams that I need to get a significant reduction in current standing to draft.

  1. Tennessee – Who do you draft from this team anyway? Vince Young? Roydell Williams? Lendale White? Chris Johnson? Elder statesman Alge Crumpler?
  2. Baltimore – The only players I’d consider are the perennially injured Heap and Willis McGahee, but they don’t score enough touchdowns to make it worth the headache of dealing with them.
  3. San Francisco – Mike Martz is in town, so whatever mediocre QB they pick will get injured. Frank Gore’s carries could be impacted and Vernon Davis is a bigger tease than the girls at the Cheetah or Stroker’s (whatever your tastes are…)
  4. Oakland – This team is very young, but they’ve really got some intriguing players. JaMarcus Russell, Run DMC, Ron Curry, and head case Javon Walker are legit NFL players, but recent history has shown horrific offensive performances in the east bay.
  5. Detroit – Too much transition, so I’m not sure what to expect. Kitna isn’t the worst QB in the NFL, Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams are a spectacular tandem, and they have two pretty good running backs. With that said, they always seem to disappoint, so I’m buyer beware.

Here is the total list. This probably doesn’t need to be said, but try to get players off the teams with good offensive lines. They’re probably already highly rated since the best teams have good O-lines anyway.

1.67 - New England

2.33 - Green Bay

3.00 - Dallas

3.00 - Cleveland

5.67 - Indianapolis

6.67 - Minnesota

7.33 - New Orleans

8.00 - Jacksonville

8.67 - San Diego

9.33 - Philadelphia

11.00 - New York Giants

11.33 - Denver

13.00 - Cincinnati

14.00 - Houston

15.67 - Washington

16.33 - Tampa Bay

17.33 - Arizona

19.33 - Pittsburgh

19.67 - New York Jets

21.00 - Seattle

21.00 - Buffalo

21.33 - St. Louis

22.33 - Carolina

23.00 - Tennessee

24.00 - Baltimore

26.00 - San Francisco

27.33 - Atlanta

27.67 - Miami

28.00 - Oakland

29.00 - Chicago

30.00 - Detroit

32.00 - Kansas City

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