Final FFB Rankings

My top FF league draft is Sunday, so I'm completing my rankings. I've used FFToolbox to get the rankings for my league specifically, and I've tiered the players by advantage. For example, each team in our 12 team league gets to start one quarterback. Therefore, I averaged the points per game for the top 12 point quarterbacks and I assigned them an advantage value.

It helps me identify what the advantage is of selecting one player over another across positions. It doesn't, however, reflect scarcity directly. So if you see a position run, you might want to take that position before you can no longer get an advantage there.

We start
1 QB
2 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 K
1 DEF

I've also located all of the injured players using rotoworld (http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/injuries.aspx?sport=NFL). Last year, I took LJ Smith, and I was never able to get consistent tight end play. As deep as the position was, I at a 3-4 point deficit every game because of the mistake. The expected amount of games missed is in parenthesis.

Specifically speaking, I've taken one player of consequence off my board. Willis McGahee is injured, has a bad attitude, is on a mediocre team, and has a history of being run out of town. I don't see great things in his future. I've highlighted in red players that I plan to target within tiers where necessary. My do not draft teams are in red and my reduced value only teams are in yellow.

Swing Trade Update RHT

I'm still tracking RHT right now. It has held the lower high, lower low paradigm as it descended further and closed today at $21.94. It is sitting almost exactly on the 30 day moving average and my Fibonacci line.

It also may have formed a T-30 pattern according to the web site I am testing (http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/t30-chart-pattern.html) . It's not exactly a hammer but it sliced through the 30 day EMA, is right at support, and had higher volume today meaning some traders may have been taken out of the trade. I'm going to post to the Chartwatchers forum to find out for sure.

Either way, I'm keeping an eye on it, and I'll probably enter tomorrow. If this is a true T-30, I should see a low volatility narrow range day tomorrow (Star or DOJI). If this materializes, I'll definitely enter late in the day.



-----------------------------
Updated:

It turns out this is not a T-30. It does, in fact, have to be a hammer.

Swing Trade RHT

The market is still in a little bit of limbo, but it's turned enough that I'm considering going long.

In terms of SPY, the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA and the Williams %R is at -74. We're looking for below 80, so we're getting there.



The VIX on the other hand is still in the middle. The RSI jumped to 50 from thirty which is a good sign, but it hasn't approached the 70 that we need to say the market is completely oversold. The VIX is still right around the 10 day moving average. It's really in the middle right now.



My potential stock is RHT (Red hat). There is a support line around $22.08 and a Fibonacci line around $21.92. Resistance is around $23.25 The long candles have all been on large volume, and the previous four day decline has been on light volume. It rallied hard off the lows at the end of today's session.

There is no upcoming announcements that I can find, so I am clear on that front. It looks like this is either the first pullback of an uptrend or the beginning of some sideways action.

My plan is to buy tomorrow if it trades above $22.78 and my initial stop will be at $21.80. It's below Fibonacci resistance. Let's see how it goes.

Poker Update - August 17

I ended up doing a morning/evening session on Sunday.

the morning session went pretty well. It could've gone terribly wrong, because I essentially did what I'm trying not to do. I called a big raise with top pair - top kicker. The first call was marginal, but I had the odds to make the call on the second. They both happen against the same guy, Villain 1.

The evening session was actually really uneventful. I lost a small amount, but I don't even remember one single hand. I really played it on autopilot, because the decisions weren't very difficult.

Hand 1: In the first hand, I'm in the small blind with AQo. I'm pretty tight in the blind, and the player in the big blind, Villain 1, is a rock and hasn't really played back at any potential stealers at this point. It folds around to me in the small blind, and I raise to around the size of the pot. He reraises me. I'm a little taken aback, but I can't fold here. I've got a good starting hand, and, despite the lack of evidence, he could be making a move.

The flop comes 5TQ with two suits being clubs. I'm not going slow here given the preflop action. Checking to the raiser in this situation gives me no indication of the strength of his hand. He's going to continue a vast majority of the time. If he was making a move with the reraise, I want him to fold. If he has a hand, then I'll know it. I raise around 3/4 pot, and he smooth calls. I'm pretty lost on what he has right now. I'm sure he's got something.

The turn pairs the board. I'm lost, and I want to get out of the hand now with no more expenditure. I check, and, of course he goes all in. I'm getting about 2.5 - 1, so I need to win here 29% of the time. Now the hard part. What does he have that I can't beat (given he's rational)?

AA or KK - If he's got this hand, does he reraise preflop? Probably not. You could run off your payday before the hand even begins.

QQ - If he's got QQ, I've got terrible luck. He can have the money.

55 - He definitely might reraise preflop since it might be his best chance to win the hand. Also calling the flop makes sense. The all in on the turn, however, looks wrong. He's now got a full house. Why not let me think I've got the best hand and check?

AT, KT (or some other hand like that) - AT would be the only hand that makes sense. The reraise preflop would be loose but not too bad. A call on the flop makes sense. He has middle pair with an overcard, and I could be making a move out of the small blind. The all-in on the turn makes sense. There's potential spade and diamond draws out there, and it's best to end the hand now.

Of all the possible hands, only AT really fits his actions. Did I think of all of this in my alloted time? Hell no! I got the odds to win, discounted AA and KK, and called just before time ran out with a queasy feeling in my stomach.

It worked out, but if I'm going to be making these calls, I need to complete this full analysis before I call. Here's the full history.

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: Hero ($23.90) - ( 200.00% / 4.27% / 1.00/ 106)
Seat 1: Villain 1 ($9.60) - ( 10.38% / 100.00% / 2.00/ 1)
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($10.68) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($2.85) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($28.47) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 5: Villain 5 ($6.23) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 6: Villain 6 ($2.54) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 7: Villain 7 ($8.91) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 8: Villain 8 ($7.26) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 9: Villain 9 ($5.23) - ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)


PRE-FLOP:

Hero posts small blind $.10
Villain 1 posts BIG blind $.25
Dealt To: Hero


FOLD Villain 2
FOLD Villain 3
FOLD Villain 4
FOLD Villain 5
FOLD Villain 6
FOLD Villain 7
FOLD Villain 8
FOLD Villain 9
RAISE Hero ($.75)
RAISE Villain 1 ($1.75)
CALL Hero ($1.75)


FLOP:

Pot: $4.25


BET Hero ($2.50)
CALL Villain 1 ($2.50)


TURN:

Pot: $9.25


CHECK Hero
RAISE Villain 1 ($5.35)
CALL Hero ($5.35)


RIVER:

Pot: $19.95




SHOWDOWN:
Villain 1:

Hero:


Hero collected $18.44 from main pot with two pair, queens and tens

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $19.20 Rake: $.76

Final Board:


Seat 1: Jh Jd Tc Qd Td: two pair, jacks and tens. - Net Gain/Loss: ($-9.6)

Seat 0: Ah Qs Tc Qd Td: two pair, queens and tens. - Net Gain/Loss: ($8.19)


Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Hand 2: I've got AQs is the cutoff. Villain 7, a reasonable tight, aggressive player makes a raise from middle position. I call, and I'm immediately called by Villain 1 on the button (rock). The blinds fold and we're three handed.

The flop brings me TPTK. Villain 7 immediately goes all in. Normally, this is an easy call, but the the rock, Villain 1, still has to act. I decide to call thinking that the all-in and call will force him to fold. I briefly thing about raising, but I don't want to over commit with TPTK. Of course, Villain 1 calls.

There's now $14 in the pot, and Villain 1 only has $5.16 left. I honestly want to check this down, but I already know it's not going to happen. I check, and he goes all-in. I only have to win this hand 20% of the time, and I have the outs in my newly minted flush draw alone. Add in that I could actually be in the lead, and it's an easy call. It turns out, Villain 1 has KQs. I'm not sure what excited him enough to call on the flop, but I'm glad he did. It allowed me to make money.


Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 0: Hero ($33.96)
Seat 1: Villain 1 ($9.71) -
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($6.06) -
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($3.46) -
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($21.98)
Seat 5: Villain 5 ($5.33)
Seat 6: Villain 6 ($9.50)
Seat 7: Villain 7 ($4.55)
Seat 8: Villain 8 ($6.65)
Seat 9: Villain 9 ($10.33)


PRE-FLOP:

Villain 2 posts small blind $.10
Villain 3 posts BIG blind $.25
Dealt To: Hero


FOLD Villain 4
FOLD Villain 5
FOLD Villain 6
RAISE Villain 7 ($1.20)
FOLD Villain 8
FOLD Villain 9
CALL Hero ($1.20)
CALL Villain 1 ($1.20)
FOLD Villain 2
FOLD Villain 3


FLOP:

Pot: $3.95


RAISE Villain 7 ($3.35)
CALL Hero ($3.35)
CALL Villain 1 ($3.35)


TURN:

Pot: $14


CHECK Hero
RAISE Villain 1 ($5.16)
CALL Hero ($5.16)


RIVER:

Pot: $24.32




SHOWDOWN:
Villain 1:

Villain 7:

Hero:


Villain 7 collected $the main p from split pot of 13.44Hero collected $the main p from split pot of 13.44Hero collected $9.92 from side pot 1 with a pair of queens

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $9.92 Rake: $.96 is raked from a total pot of 24.32. .56 is raked from the main pot of 14. .40

Final Board:


Seat 1: Qc Kc Qh Jh 8s: a pair of queens. - Net Gain/Loss: ($-9.71)

Seat 7: Qd Ad Qh Jh 8s: a pair of queens, acejack kickers. - Net Gain/Loss: ($-4.55)

Seat 0: Qs As Qh Jh 8s: a pair of queens. - Net Gain/Loss: ($0.21)


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