1. Maximize the money you win out of marginal winning hands
2. Lose the minimum when you get unlucky
3. Win big hands
4. Eliminate the big loss
I know some will say there is a fifth element which is winning hands that you shouldn’t win via bluff and aggression, but that is generally over rated. Most players just lose money trying because they over do it. If I were to average, I only really bluff about once every couple of hours. I continue bluff about 50% of the time and I will semi bluff about 20% of the time. Getting outside that structure is typically a money loser.
In general, even though I haven’t done a scientific study on it, numbers one and two will cancel one another out. Your profit comes from eliminating your big losses while holding on to you big gains. I’ve worked long and hard each element of this formula over the years, but there are still times when I run into stretches of big losses. As detailed earlier, that’s what is going on at FTP right now. It kind of continued this morning, but I was able to hold the losses down. The frustrating thing is that I haven’t been able to win the big had. I know it will average, but it is frustrating nonetheless.
I always seem to end up with the second best hand, so I’m now FTP (frequently the pigeon). I just have to keep going and it’ll turn. I’m sure of it.
Here are the key hands in this morning’s session.
Hand 1: I get lucky, but not lucky enough to get re reraised
Just so it’s not all doom and gloom. Here’s a hand of substantial money that I actually won. Check out the hand history after the right up. It happened between hands 3 and 4.
Hand 2: The guessing game
I’d been playing about 35 minutes and I catch AQs. I raise preflop but I am reraised by a late position player. I’m certainly not going to fold to the raise because I’m a good favorite over a lot of the hands he could be holding, and I’m really only afraid of AA, KK, QQ and AK. I’m also not going to reraise him out of position I still respect him.
On the flop, 89A falls and I spike my Ace. There is a straight draw out there, but I’m going to check to the raiser and raise him. He checks, however. I’m pretty certain my Ace is best here, because he should auto bet an Ace here.
The turn comes and we now have 89TA with the flush possibility now dead. Given his reraise preflop, QJ is not a hand that fits his situation, but I need to bet here. I bet half the flop and he flat calls the hand. I’m not sure what to put him on now. AA is far fetched since I hold and Ace, QJ doesn’t reraise preflop. Is KK winning to call here, maybe but that’s a good situation. If you’ve got trips, then you need to reraise, don’t you?
The river delivers a 6 of hearts, and we now have 89TA6 on the board. A good rule of thumb is that when you can’t figure out what a player has then you are behind. I’m behind, but I decide to be the aggressor since I figure he will bet. In addition, I’m not 100% that I’m behind and AQ is pretty strong given the betting action. I bet half the pot with the intention to fold to any raise. He flips over AK, and I was dominated from the beginning. Thanks FTP.
Hand 3: Even when I’m right I lose
I’ve now been at the table for around 50 minutes. I’m still playing my normal tight aggressive game. I pick up TT in middle position and I raise. I figure that I won’t get much action, but I get immediately called by the player to my left. He’s extremely tight. He’s only playing 8% of all hands and raises about 4% of the time prefflop, so I’m on code orange.
The flop come 65J with two diamonds. It’s very likely that this missed him hand, so I go ahead and bet about ¾ of the pot. He calls. At this time, I’m thinking of shutting it down.
The turn brings a 5 of clubs providing a double suited flush draw. I check, because I’m not interested in building a huge pot. He bets ¾ of the pot. I think to fold, but I go through the process. If he has AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, would he reraise preflop? He’s tight, but I have seen him reraise before. It’s not likely that he has those hands. Could he have 66 or 55? Very possible, but I’m not sure someone so tight calls preflop with those hands. You know what fits him perfectly, however? AK or AQ. Could he call with these preflop? Yes. Could he call a flop bet against a nebulous board? Yes, if he thinks I’m capable of bluffing. Could he bet the turn? Yes, I’m showing weakness. I decide to call.
The river brings an Ace of clubs, and we’ve now got 65J5A with a backdoor flush draw. I’m done with the hand. I check. He checks behind, and he turns over AQo. That’s just the way it’s been going lately. Right read, but just unlucky.
Hand 4: Let’s not get carried away with winning. You’re still at FTP.
I get JJ in the small blind. The pot is raise prior to getting to me, and I decide to call. Yes, I could reraise here, but I’m normally building a pot that I’ll have to drop on the river if he calls.
The flop comes 35T with two diamonds. I normally bet straight out here and hope to win the pot because I don’t want to see an over card. After playing with him for over an hour, however, I know there is a 99% chance that this guy will bet here. I’m going to take this opportunity to check raise so that I can hopefully get some checks out of him later when he as position on me. Like anticipated, he bets about ¾ pot, and I raise him $2. It’s about 2.8 to 1, but I suspect he has two over card. He calls. Crap.
The turn bring an 8 of hearts giving us two hearts and two diamonds. I’m just going to check it down from here. The call means he has something. If he has a diamond draw, I’m going to let him draw at it. He checks.
The river brings a 5 of clubs. Both draws miss. I think of betting, but it makes no sense here. If he was drawing on a flush, he’s missed and won’t give any more money. If he’s got a smaller pair then me, them he’s probably out of here anyway. Only hands beating me will call. I check, and he checks behind me.
He turns over QQ and takes the pot. I’m not sure why he didn’t bet the river, but I guess the reraise on the flop scared him and he figured it was an extravagant plot to reraise him again. Maybe it was that I was playing out of the big blind, and he figured that I had hit the flop in a blind defense. Logically, I should bet the turn with a strong hand because of draws which is an argument for betting the river. Either way, he left some money on the table as I likely would’ve called a bet on the river.
It was just another hand fitting the sequence at FTP. I got involved in the hand with the worst of it and I couldn’t get lucky. It’s to the point I hate getting good hands, because it just represents and opportunity to lose more money.
Hand 1:
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Seat 1: Villain 1 ($13.05)
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($37.75)
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($36.25) -
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($14.75) -
Seat 5: Hero ($22.40) -
Seat 6: Villain 5 ($30.50)
Seat 7: Villain 6 ($42.20)
Seat 8: Villain 7 ($25)
Seat 9: Villain 8 ($18.70)
PRE-FLOP:
Villain 4 posts small blind $0.10
Hero posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero
FOLD Villain 5
FOLD Villain 6
CALL Villain 7 ($0.25)
FOLD Villain 8
FOLD Villain 1
CALL Villain 2 ($0.25)
CALL Villain 3 ($0.25)
CALL Villain 4 ($0.15)
CHECK Hero
FLOP:
Pot: $1.25
CHECK Villain 4
CHECK Hero
CHECK Villain 7
CHECK Villain 2
CHECK Villain 3
TURN:
Pot: $1.25
CHECK Villain 4
BET Hero ($1)
FOLD Villain 7
CALL Villain 2 ($1)
CALL Villain 3 ($1)
CALL Villain 4 ($1)
RIVER:
Pot: $5.25
CHECK Villain 4
BET Hero ($3)
CALL Villain 2 ($3)
CALL Villain 3 ($3)
FOLD Villain 4
SHOWDOWN:
Hero:
MUCK Villain 2
MUCK Villain 3
Hero collected $13.55 from main pot with a full house, Twos full of Aces
SUMMARY:
Total pot: $14 Rake: $0.70
Final Board:
Seat 1: Villain 1 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 2: Villain 2 mucked [5h Ah] - two pair, Aces and Twos - Net Gain/Loss: ($-4.25)
Seat 3: Villain 3 button mucked [Ac Ks] - two pair, Aces and Twos - Net Gain/Loss: ($-4.25)
Seat 4: Villain 4 small blind folded on the River - Net Gain/Loss: ($-1.25)
Seat 5: Hero big blind showed [Ad 2h] and won 13.55 with a full house, Twos full of Aces - Net Gain/Loss: ($9.3)
Seat 6: Villain 5 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 7: Villain 6 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 8: Villain 7 folded on the Turn - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.25)
Seat 9: Villain 8 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
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Hand 2:
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Seat 1: Villain 1 ($36.15) -
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($23.05) -
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($27.75)
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($10.55)
Seat 5: Hero ($23.95)
Seat 6: Villain 5 ($24.75)
Seat 7: Villain 6 ($28.60)
Seat 8: Villain 7 ($25.90)
Seat 9: Villain 8 ($30.80) -
PRE-FLOP:
Villain 1 posts small blind $0.10
Villain 2 posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero
FOLD Villain 3
FOLD Villain 4
RAISE Hero ($0.85)
FOLD Villain 5
RAISE Villain 6 ($2.90)
FOLD Villain 7
FOLD Villain 8
FOLD Villain 1
FOLD Villain 2
CALL Hero ($2.05)
FLOP:
Pot: $6.15
CHECK Hero
CHECK Villain 6
TURN:
Pot: $6.15
BET Hero ($3)
CALL Villain 6 ($3)
RIVER:
Pot: $12.15
BET Hero ($6)
CALL Villain 6 ($6)
SHOWDOWN:
Hero:
Villain 6:
Villain 6 collected $22.95 from main pot with a pair of Aces
SUMMARY:
Total pot: $24 Rake: $1.20
Final Board:
Seat 1: Villain 1 small blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.1)
Seat 2: Villain 2 big blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.25)
Seat 3: Villain 3 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 4: Villain 4 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 5: Hero showed [Ah Qh] and lost with a pair of Aces - Net Gain/Loss: ($-11.9)
Seat 6: Villain 5 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 7: Villain 6 showed [Kc Ad] and won 22.95 with a pair of Aces - Net Gain/Loss: ($11.05)
Seat 8: Villain 7 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 9: Villain 8 button didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
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Hand 3:
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Seat 1: Villain 1 ($36.05) Sitting Out
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($24.50) -
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($50.25)
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($19.35)
Seat 5: Hero ($24.50)
Seat 6: Villain 5 ($24.75)
Seat 7: Villain 6 ($39.65)
Seat 8: Villain 7 ($28.25) -
Seat 9: Villain 8 ($29.80) -
PRE-FLOP:
Villain 8 posts small blind $0.10
Villain 2 posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero
FOLD Villain 3
FOLD Villain 4
RAISE Hero ($0.85)
CALL Villain 5 ($0.85)
FOLD Villain 6
FOLD Villain 7
FOLD Villain 8
FOLD Villain 2
FLOP:
Pot: $2.05
BET Hero ($1.20)
CALL Villain 5 ($1.20)
TURN:
Pot: $4.45
CHECK Hero
BET Villain 5 ($3.30)
CALL Hero ($3.30)
RIVER:
Pot: $11.05
CHECK Hero
CHECK Villain 5
SHOWDOWN:
Villain 5:
MUCK Hero
Villain 5 collected $10.5 from main pot with two pair, Aces and Fives
SUMMARY:
Total pot: $11 Rake: $0.55
Final Board:
Seat 1: Villain 1 is sitting out - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 2: Villain 2 big blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.25)
Seat 3: Villain 3 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 4: Villain 4 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 5: Hero mucked [Tc Th] - two pair, Tens and Fives - Net Gain/Loss: ($-5.35)
Seat 6: Villain 5 showed [Ad Qc] and won 10.50 with two pair, Aces and Fives - Net Gain/Loss: ($5.15)
Seat 7: Villain 6 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 8: Villain 7 button didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 9: Villain 8 small blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.1)
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Hand 4
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Seat 1: Villain 1 ($12.20)
Seat 2: Villain 2 ($33.10) -
Seat 3: Villain 3 ($25) Sitting Out
Seat 4: Villain 4 ($14.35) -
Seat 5: Hero ($31.10) -
Seat 6: Villain 5 ($37.75)
Seat 7: Villain 6 ($34.90)
Seat 8: Villain 7 ($25)
Seat 9: Villain 8 ($19.30)
PRE-FLOP:
Villain 4 posts small blind $0.10
Hero posts BIG blind $0.25
Dealt To: Hero
FOLD Villain 5
FOLD Villain 6
FOLD Villain 7
RAISE Villain 8 ($0.75)
FOLD Villain 1
FOLD Villain 2
FOLD Villain 4
CALL Hero ($0.50)
FLOP:
Pot: $1.6
CHECK Hero
BET Villain 8 ($1)
RAISE Hero ($3)
CALL Villain 8 ($2)
TURN:
Pot: $7.6
CHECK Hero
CHECK Villain 8
RIVER:
Pot: $7.6
CHECK Hero
CHECK Villain 8
SHOWDOWN:
Hero:
Villain 8:
Villain 8 collected $7.25 from main pot with two pair, Queens and Fives
SUMMARY:
Total pot: $7 Rake: $0.35
Final Board:
Seat 1: Villain 1 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 2: Villain 2 button didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 3: Villain 3 is sitting out - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 4: Villain 4 small blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-0.1)
Seat 5: Hero big blind showed [Jd Jc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fives - Net Gain/Loss: ($-3.75)
Seat 6: Villain 5 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 7: Villain 6 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 8: Villain 7 didnt bet folded - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 9: Villain 8 showed [Qs Qc] and won 7.25 with two pair, Queens and Fives - Net Gain/Loss: ($3.5)
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