Sunday, December 28, 2008

Fantasy Football Wrap Up & Lessons Learned

The fantasy season ended last week in both money leagues, and I ended up 2nd in both. I feel like a bit of a failure for winning neither, but there is so much randomness that it's hard to really be that upset with the result. I ended up losing 63.58-61.15 in the Yahoo! league primarily because TB got torched by San Diego as an indication.

Before I get into the discussion, here are my lessons learned

Lesson 1: Don't underestimate quarterback. Draft one in the late first or early second round. Draft one as your first backup player. Draft one late in the draft with high potential. Getting a QB that averages 2-3 touchdowns a game is a key to the game. GET A HIGH SCORING QB!

Lesson 2: Don't over value wide receiver. You can get good/great ones in the middle rounds. The consensus top 4 receivers (1st/2nd round grades) were Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens. You wouldn't have been happy with any of those players. Anquan Boldin average 10.4 ppg, but the next 15 average between 8.4 and 6. Boldin was the only one worthy of a 1st or 2nd round pick based on average, but he missed 3 games. Get one after your stud QB and RB.

Lesson 3: In the running back by committe era, you can find a running back. Draft one high (1st or second) and pick up some decent guys in the 4 round or so in the draft. If you get lucky with the decent guys, you'll probably be fine. If not, just be quick on the waiver wire in the first few weeks. For example, Deangelo Williams (6th round), Thomas Jones (3rd), Michael Turner(4th), Matt Forte (6th), Steve Slaton, and Pierre Thomas were all top 10 running backs.

Lesson 4: If a guy looks bad and if his offense looks bad, don't trade for him. Transversely, ask for too much if you draft a flier and he starts off hot, it's likely to continue.

Lesson 5: It's okay to draft a defense in the next to the last round, but you'd better pick a second one sooner than later. Your object is to find one that has great playoff matchups and plays an attacking, blitz happy style... which leads me to

Lesson 6: Never play a defense based on the amount of points they will surrender. You need an attacking defense. Even the most putrid offense will score 14 points. Picking a mediocre defense against a soft match up is a recipe for disaster. You're better off playing the a good defense with a tough matchup, because they will get pressure.

Lesson 7: Tight End doesn't matter. They are inconsistent and are generally seperated by 2 points per game. If you don't get a top 2 tight end, then just wait until the 3rd to last round. You may be better off not even picking a top tight end, and just waiting until the 3rd to last round anyway.

Here were the key trades that occurred during the season. I got suckered in the Warner deal as it turns out, but I was trying to offload him before he had his 7 fumble, 5 interception game. If I'd know the NFC West would've been that terrible, I wouldn't have made the deal. I won the Torain deal because he got hurt and the Harrison/Stinko trade was a wash.

Trades:
Traded Kurt Warner for Braylon Edwards after week 2 (Fanball)
Traded Marvin Harrison for Ocho Stinko just for kicks (Fanball)
Traded Ryan Torain for DeSean Jackson (Yahoo!)

Fanball (12 team) notes: I had a hell of a draft in this league. Vernon Davis was really the only player who was an outright bust. I dropped David Garrard, Chris Perry, and Crayton for non performance, but they were all bench players anyway.

Other interesting things...I had a spell in which I signed and played Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis as running back starters since Bush and Jackson were down...I dropped an re-added Heller...Matt Prater was my kicker for most of the year, but I changed kickers like I change underwear...

Here's my final roster:

QB: Romo
RB: Steven Jackson
RB: Chris Johnson
WR: Anquan Boldin
WR: Roddy While
WR: Kevin Walter
TE: John Carlson
K: Garrett Hartley (picked up for last week at Detroit)
DEF: Tampa Bay

Bench
QB: Jeff Garcia
RB: Reggie Bush
RB: Carnell Williams
WR: DeSean Jackson
WR: Ocho Stinko
WR: Braylon Edwards
TE: Dustin Keller

Yahoo! (14 team) notes: I had a few bad picks, but this team was ravaged by injuries. "Ben", Selvin Young, and Todd Heap were all outright bust. Ben had no time to throw due to a depleted line, Young split carries three ways and was taken out once they entered the red zone, and Heap was stuck blocking for a rookie QB.

In week 1, I lost Burleson and Bennett for the season and Colston for 9 weeks. Throw in the fact that I lost Steven Jackson for a prolonged period of time, and it is amazing that I made it threw to place second. Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson, Megatron, and Tim Hightower absolutely carried me.

Other interesting things...Picking up Lance Moore was a gold mine as he played the Reggie Bush role after Bush got hurt...Matt Jones was on the team but I cut him before the cocaine suspension...I actually picked up and played Antwan Randle El(lol)...I added and dropped Antonio Bryant prematurely which was probably my worst move of the year

Here's my final roster:

QB: Rodgers
WR: Megatron
WR: Colston
RB: Chris Johnson
RB: Steven Jackson
W/R: DeSean Jackson (although Hightower played a whole lot)
TE: Carlson
K: Hartley
DEF: TB

Bench
QB: Ben
RB: Tim Hightower
RB: Maurice Morris
RB: Carnell Williams
WR: Lance Moore
K: Jay Feely
Def: Carolina

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